Solana
When will Solana (SOL) break out?
Extensive predictive research suggests that Solana will need to move lower first before reaching new highs. This process will create a bullish reversal; this is a prerequisite for a Solana breakout to occur. Although new highs are likely for SOL, this is unlikely to happen in the near term.
In our Solana predictions for 2024 and 2025 we write, in detail, about our Solana predictions:
InvestingHaven Exclusive SOL Forecast for 2024 is based on that of Solana bullish cup and handle pattern. SOL should fall to support at $82.84 which, if hit, we anticipate will offer an epic buying opportunity. If this support holds, InvestingHaven’s SOL forecast for 2025 suggests bullish targets in the future. $500 – $1,000 area.
What we have not done, however, is explain in detail which factors are important for a breakout from SOL to a new ATH.
Understanding when Solana (GROUND) could erupt involves closely monitoring several key factors.
Analyzing these data points allows anyone to better predict the timing and likelihood of Solana reaching new highs.
SOL to the new ATH? Educational video on forecasting.
That’s why we’ve recorded an educational SOL forecast video, explaining exactly what will matter for SOL to move to the new ATH. InvestingHaven Senior Analyst recorded this video which takes a structural and easy-to-understand approach to forecasting Solana.
RELATED – 7 things to note about Solana in the next 18 months
1. A Solana Breakout Requires Bitcoin’s Secular Uptrend to Remain Intact
Solana’s breakthrough depends heavily on Bitcoin’s momentum.
As indicated:
For Solana to rise, Bitcoin must continue its upward trend.
Bitcoin’s performance serves as a barometer for the entire crypto market.
When Bitcoin exhibits a long-term uptrend, represented by its ascending channel on the weekly charts, it creates a ripe environment for Solana to follow suit.
Below is the weekly BTC chart. As we have seen, the long term channel is perfect. Solana requires BTC to continue moving in this channel in the long term; A continuation of the BTC uptrend will determine if and when a Solana breakout occurs.
2. Market Dynamics: Bi-furcation in Crypto Markets
The current divisive state of the crypto market plays a significant role.
We are in a divided crypto market where not all tokens are participating in the rise.
Although Solana has performed well, a necessary pullback could pave the way for a solid breakout. The key is for Solana to reset while maintaining its strong fundamentals and favorable chart patterns.
At InvestingHaven, we predicted that the 2024 bull market would be sharply divided. This implies that many tokens are not increasing despite the strength of BTC. This seems awkward as a market participant, but it’s the new normal.
For Solana to continue doing well, amid bifurcated crypto markets, it would need to favor its excellent fundamentals and continue to trend in a long-term bullish chart reversal.
RELATED – The 2024 cryptocurrency bull market is a hidden bull market.
3. The Solana Bullish Reversal Pattern
A critical chart structure to watch for is a bullish reversal.
For a positive outcome, Solana’s chart structure should show a bullish reversal.
This reversal trend, similar to that observed between 2022 and 2024, indicates potential for bullish momentum. Specifically, a smaller rounded pattern forming a cup and handle structure would be a strong bullish signal.
Below is the bullish reversal created by SOL over the last 36 months. It’s easy to see a much smaller spill occurring, creating a cup and handle formation.
4. Key support determined by a significant weekly candle
Solana’s ability to maintain specific support levels is crucial.
The critical level to watch is between $80 and $85.
If Solana falls to this level and holds, it could create a bullish reversal and a solid foundation for future gains. This support must be maintained for several weeks to validate its importance and signal a potential breakout.
It is the SOL chart that holds the key to a Solana breakout in the future – the weekly candle depicted on the chart must be respected at all times!
5. Periods of uncertainty – September/October 2024?
Before a breakout, Solana could enter a “twilight zone” period of uncertainty.
If Solana respects the key support level, we could enter a “twilight zone” period of uncertainty, characterized by a battle between the bulls and the bears.
This phase, marked by market indecision, is crucial for establishing a new uptrend. Patience is key during this volatile time.
The “Twilight Zone” is a period when most investors hate a market. This is the opposite effect of an upward trend which results in a passion for the markets. The “twilight zone” for SOL will likely occur when SOL retraces, which will likely occur during the September/October 2024 period.
6. Ripple vs SEC also matters for Solana
The legitimate battle between Ripple and the SEC also impacts Solana’s breakout potential.
If Ripple wins against the SEC, it would be favorable for Solana, reducing regulatory risks.
Conversely, an SEC victory could pose challenges for Solana. Monitoring this case is critical, as its outcome will influence Solana’s regulatory environment and market confidence.
Remember, the SEC for follow-up Solana, saying it is an unregistered security. Solana wants Ripple to win the lawsuit, set a precedent, supporting the claim that SOL is not a security.
7. Solana Escape: validation and invalidation
To anticipate a breakout, certain validation points must be respected:
- Solana must stay above $30.
- Bitcoin is expected to remain in its long-term ascending channel, staying above $30,000.
- The SEC is expected to lose its case against Ripple.
Compliance with these conditions will create a solid foundation for Solana’s breakthrough. Conversely, violation of these points could delay or negate the potential for a breakout.
As with any prediction, there must be invalidation criteria, even if they are unlikely to be met.
In the case of SOL, it is of course very unlikely that it will fall back to $30. Likewise, BTC falls below $30,000, amid growth institutional interest, is an unlikely outcome.
Conclusion: Escape from Solana?
In conclusion, predicting when Solana will break out involves monitoring Bitcoin’s momentum, understanding the forked market, monitoring bullish reversal patterns, and keeping an eye on key support levels.
From a regulatory perspective, Solana would need Ripple to win the case against the SEC.
In conclusion, as unlikely as BTC falls below $30,000, it remains mandatory to take into account the invalidation criteria. We strongly believe that THE most important factor for a Solana breakout to occur is the continuation of Bitcoin’s uptrend within its long-term ascending channel.
Spotting secular trends is what we do in our premium crypto service >>
Receive our FREE crypto newsletter alerts
Download 50 Crypto Investing Tips
[10-YEAR ANNIVERSARY] InvestingHaven.com celebrates its 10th anniversary. Join our 3 premium services: gold and silver ratio + stock investment + crypto investment, join our exclusive passive income service. Our VIP package >>