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July’s $280M Tokens Unlocked: Will AVAX, ARB, and APT Disrupt Altcoin Market?
- Tokens worth over $280 million will be unlocked.
- Will ARB, APT and OP prices drop further?
The cryptocurrency market, especially the altcoin sector, may face severe volatility induced by token unlocks in July.
According to AMBCrypto analysis Token UnlocksOver $280 million in cryptocurrencies would be unlocked in the next seven days, with Will [ARB] AND Aptos [APT] controlling the largest part of the supply program.
Source: Token Unlocks
Aptos is set to unlock over $70 million worth of tokens on July 12. Additionally, ARB will unlock $66.6 million worth of tokens on July 15, closely followed by Optimism [OP] at $54 million on July 30.
In less than two weeks, Avalanche [AVAX] will join the supply program and unlock $245 million worth of tokens.
Will the token unlocking impact the altcoin market?
AMBCrypto’s assessment of June’s token unlocks indicated that there were different token price performances before and after the unlock program.
ARB was among the worst performers after its unlock in mid-June worth $105 million. User X (formerly of Twitter) DeFi Scholar noted,
“Effect on token [ARB]: From 0.92 on 16 to 0.77 (down 20%).”
The assessment mentioned that the overall market sentiment determined ARB’s performance during the breakouts. However, Ethereal [ETH] L2s have suffered massive drops in value even in better market conditions.
In fact, a relationship from Deribit in early June linked the poor performance of ETH L2 such as ARB and Optimism to the oversupply resulting from unlocks.
To put that in perspective, ARB has erased all of its 2024 gains and has fallen below $1 since the beginning of June.
Source: ARB/USDT, TradingView
The upcoming token offering worth $66 million would make it difficult for ARB to break the downtrend line and move above $0.76.
Source: ARB/USDT, TradingView
APT has also seen significant losses from recent drawdowns. However, it has bounced solidly from $5 and may target $7 or the previous range low above $7.5. However, the unlock program could complicate matters.
Notably, APT is down 20% after unlocking over $100 million in tokens in June. This could happen again, especially if Bitcoin [BTC] does not extend compensation and recovers $60,000.
However, if the negative market sentiment reverses and BTC turns bullish, the impact of the breakouts on altcoins could be minimized.