Bitcoin
Is Crypto on the Verge of a Bull or Bear Market? Using the 2024 Consensus as a Barometer
The question on everyone’s mind at Consensus 2024 seems to be: How on earth should we describe current market sentiment? Are we in a bull market? A bear market? On the brink of another bull market? Staggering on the brink of collapse again?
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Since the launch of bitcoin exchange-traded funds earlier this year, bitcoin has recovered and even surpassed the all-time high set during the heady days of the 2021 bull market. But for weeks and weeks and weeks it appears that, at best, the largest cryptocurrency has been trading sideways.
Overall, there have been many positive developments for crypto in recent months. The European Union, after passing MiCA last year, is starting to see traction in its domestic cryptocurrency market, while other global hubs such as Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates and Caribbean countries have also introduced significant legislation.
And perhaps most importantly, it appears that the US regulatory impasse is finally beginning to ease. The House recently passed the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century (FIT21) Act last week, marking the furthest a crypto-specific bill has ever gone legislatively. Meanwhile, the US Securities and Exchange Commission has done a U-turn on Ether ETFs.
It appears that conditions exist for a breakout, but so far it is unclear exactly what the future of crypto is.
“Call me cautiously optimistic,” Adam Roberts of institutional wallet MPC told CoinDesk in a showroom interview. “The approval of the ETH ETF is a sign of change, but it is not enough to catalyze things again.”
“Ask me in two days and I’ll have a better answer,” Roberts added. “Based on how quickly the coffee was consumed, this is a good indicator.”
It was a point shared by Roberts’ colleague Steve Horvath, who joked about using the 2024 Consensus as a barometer for market sentiment.
“Based on the crowd — no bear, no bull,” Horvath said.
Micha Benoliel, co-founder and CEO of Nodle, is a bit more optimistic about recent regulatory changes, noting that the SEC’s heavy-handed approach to crypto oversight has driven many companies abroad and made it difficult to run a business domestically.
If all goes well, “this alone should create a new bull market as the US remains the largest crypto market in the world,” Benoliel said.
Amanda Wick, founder and CEO of the Association for Women in Cryptography and a former Justice Department attorney, is also optimistic this year, having looked around the conference and seen signs of a maturing industry.
“The consensus this year compared to last year seemed like night and day,” Wick said. “The maturity was evident in the conversations, the speakers, the sponsors, and the intentional inclusion of groups that are working to make the industry more diverse,” she added, noting the outreach made this year to include diversity groups like LGBTQ+ advocates in Web Q. “The industry’s best chance of sustaining a bull run is through maturation and increased integrity, and this year’s Consensus clearly reflects a positive movement in that direction,” she concluded.
In fact, it may not be exactly clear whether crypto is on the brink of another bull or bear market – but with any luck it has learned to avoid what brought it down last time.