Brandt suggests Bitcoin may have already reached cycle peak and predicts drop to $48,000

Contrary to many expert opinions, market veteran Peter Brandt says Bitcoin (BTC) may have already peaked this cycle, predicting a possible drop to $48,000.

The current market correction has caused investor distress, with BTC struggling to recover $70,000. Two influential voices, Peter Brandt and Jurrien Timmer, recently shared their views on the future of Bitcoin. This information raised concerns, especially Brandt’s pessimistic outlook.

Timmer: Bitcoin sees slowdown in network growth

In a post on X, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, considered Bitcoin will be like “exponential gold”. He believes that Bitcoin’s price is primarily driven by the growth of its network, which benefits from limited supply, economic policies, and Bitcoin investor sentiment.

Timmer highlighted that Bitcoin and Ethereum follow growth patterns similar to those observed in many technological advances. He used a power curve to show how Bitcoin’s price fluctuates around the growth of its network.

However, the market analyst drew attention to a recent slowdown in the growth of the Bitcoin network. Despite this, the price continued to rise, creating a divergence that Timmer finds worrying. He suggests that for Bitcoin to reach new highs, its network growth must accelerate again.

Brandt suggests the market peak may be behind us

Responding to Timmer’s opinion, Pedro Brandt, a veteran market analyst, offered a more cautious outlook. Brandt highlighted that recent Bitcoin bull market cycles have shown diminishing returns. Notably, each cycle delivered smaller percentage gains compared to the previous one.

The 2011/2013 Bitcoin bull market cycle experienced an 82% reduction in earnings compared to the 2010/2011 cycle. This pattern continued with the 2015/2017 cycle, which saw a 79% decrease in earnings compared to the 2011-2013 period. Likewise, the 2018/2021 cycle saw an 82% drop in earnings compared to the 2015/2017 cycle.

Brandt suggests that if this trend continues, the current cycle may already be over, with the peak price of $73,777 being the highest value of the cycle. This would mean that Bitcoin may not surpass this price spike, contrary to some predictions of $100,000 or even $150,000.

For example, Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, expected in March that BTC would reach $100,000 in 2024. Robert Kiyosaki, financial commentator and author of ‘Rich Dad, Poor Dad’ also share this feeling. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered and Binance CEO Richard Teng adjusted their goals for $150,000 and $80,000.

A possible drop in Bitcoin to $48,000

However, if Brandt’s suggestion is appropriate, these price objectives may not materialize this cycle. In a separate analysis, Brandt noted Bitcoin’s current bearish position. According to him, if BTC falls to $65,000, it could fall to $60,000, and breaking this level could cause it to fall to $48,000.

Currently, Bitcoin has failed to recover and confidently maintain above the $70,000 price threshold. The firstborn crypto currently changes hands for $67,112, marking a 5% drop over the past week. This drop is in line with Brandt’s bearish stance, suggesting caution to investors. Notably, Brandt had previously predicted BTC will reach 100 ounces of gold, representing a price of $234,000

Disclaimer: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The opinions expressed in this article may include the personal opinions of the author and do not reflect the opinion of The Crypto Basic. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.

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