Bitcoin
3 bold predictions about where Bitcoin could be in 4 years (the last one may shock you)
When predicting the future price of Bitcoin, it is important to consider a wide range of potential outcomes.
Since reaching a new all-time high in March, Bitcoin (Bitcoin -2.08%) largely disappointed crypto investors. The price of Bitcoin it’s still trading around $68,000, roughly where it was three months ago.
Furthermore, the two big Bitcoin catalysts of 2024 – the launch of new spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the halving of mining fees – have already come and gone. So is it time to rethink the direction Bitcoin could take in the coming years? Let’s take a closer look.
Base case
The base scenario assumes that spot Bitcoin ETFs will continue to see an influx of money from new investors and that Wall Street will continue to embrace Bitcoin as a new asset class for portfolio diversification purposes. Over time, this constant flow of new money should lift Bitcoin.
But how much higher? There are tradeoffs involved in the popularization of Bitcoin, and one of them is that Bitcoin could start to behave more and more like a traditional asset. This means it may no longer generate the astronomical returns it once did.
In the decade between 2011 and 2021, Bitcoin delivered annualized returns of 230% per year, compared to 20% per year for technology stocks. Thus, a more reasonable estimate for Bitcoin’s future annual returns might be closer to 20% rather than 230%.
If we use this 20% growth estimate, then four years from now, the price of Bitcoin could more than double from its current level of $70,000 to nearly $150,000. That’s impressive, but it’s far from the $1 million price tag that some Wall Street analysts are now predicting.
Bull case
The optimistic scenario assumes that the steady flow of money into new Bitcoin ETFs will turn into a tsunami. It also assumes that institutional investors will start making Bitcoin one of their largest holdings. At this time, institutional investors can only allocate 1% or less of their holdings to Bitcoin. But what if they increase that number to 5%, 10% or even 20%? It was then that the price of Bitcoin could really take off.
At the same time, the optimistic scenario assumes that the long-awaited Bitcoin halved will deliver as originally expected. In the three previous halving cycles (in 2012, 2016 and 2020), the price of Bitcoin absolutely exploded. So why can’t it happen this time too?
In the previous halving cycle, for example, the price of Bitcoin soared from $10,000 in May 2020 to $60,000 in April 2021. Therefore, any optimistic forecast needs to include a prolonged period of very rapid growth in the price of Bitcoin. Bitcoin.
Finally, the optimistic scenario assumes that lawmakers in Congress will pass pro-Bitcoin legislation after the 2024 elections. We are already hearing rumblings of a major shift in the way Washington, D.C. views crypto, and if the next president is optimistic about the Bitcoin, this is where things can get very interesting.
bear case
The bear case scenario is basically the “I told you so” scenario. This is what happens when all the warnings from high-profile investors turn out to be correct. For years, some of Wall Street’s top names have claimed that Bitcoin is basically just a giant Ponzi scheme. AND Warren Buffett Said He Wouldn’t Pay $25 for All the Bitcoin in the World.
This is not to say that Bitcoin will fall to zero in the next four years, just that it may not provide the kind of transformative wealth that some people hope for. What happens, for example, if the halving fails? Or what if people stop putting their money into the new Bitcoin ETFs? Or what if some crypto legislation in Congress stalls due to political infighting? In this scenario, Bitcoin may never become popular. And if Bitcoin doesn’t become popular, there is no way it will reach $1 million.
Consider a range of potential outcomes
When thinking about Bitcoin, it is important to consider a number of different outcomes. It doesn’t matter whether you call them “bull case” or “bear case” scenarios, just that you recognize that a few small changes to your basic assumptions can have a huge effect on where Bitcoin’s price goes next.
For example, consider Cathie Wood of Ark Invest. While she predicted that Bitcoin’s price could reach $1.48 million by 2030, she also provides a bearish scenario in which Bitcoin could only reach $258,500. These large swings in results are based on adjustments to just a few key parameters, such as the expected portfolio allocation to Bitcoin by institutional investors.
Personally, I am still bullish on Bitcoin in the long term. But I’m starting to lower some of my expectations for Bitcoin over the next four years. Once you start playing with the numbers, you’ll realize how much needs to work out for Bitcoin to reach the mythical $1 million mark.
Bitcoin
RIOT, MARA and CLSK shares at risk
Bitcoin (BTC) Mining stocks like Riot Platforms (RIOT), Marathon Digital (MARA) and CleanSpark (CLSK) retreated in pre-market trading as BTC retreated.
RIOT, MARA and CLSK all fell more than 2%, while other crypto-related stocks such as MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Coinbase (COIN) fell 1.5%.
Bitcoin sell-off continues
Crypto-linked stocks retreated as Bitcoin resumed its downtrend on Wednesday. After rising to $63,750 on Monday, BTC is hovering at $60,0000 and it is unclear whether it will recover.
More importantly, Bitcoin is dangerously close to the crucial support at $58,273, which is the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The next support level for Bitcoin is $56,426, representing its lowest level in May.
Bitcoin Price Chart
If Bitcoin drops below this price, it will be a sign that the bears have prevailed, which could take it to the $50,000 level, if not below.
This decline happened after a whale deposited nearly 2,000 Bitcoins to Binance in two separate transactions. While this isn’t always the case, deposits to exchanges often happen when holders are exiting their positions.
The whales’ action coincided with a period in which the German government continues to sell off its Bitcoin holdings. It transferred $52 million worth of coins to exchanges on Tuesday.
As a result, data from CoinGlass shows that the volume of Bitcoin balances on exchanges has started to increase. The volume rose to 2.49 million on Tuesday, from last month’s low of 2.47 million.
Bitcoin balances on exchanges
Bitcoin Mining Companies at Risk
If the Bitcoin sell-off continues, it will put Bitcoin mining companies like Marathon, CleanSpark, and Riot Platforms at risk. These companies have tended to have a close correlation with Bitcoin in the past.
This drop is happening a few months after the halving event, reducing the amount of Bitcoins that miners receive.
To compensate for this drop, most of these companies have added their mining equipment. CleanSpark has reached a hash rate of 20 EH/swhich helped her mine 445 coins in June after mining 417 coins the previous month. She did this after purchasing 5 mining sites in Georgia.
Digital Marathon mined 590 coins in June, down 40% from the same month in 2023 and flat from May.
Riot Platforms, on the other hand, focused on acquiring Bitfarms, a company that mined 189 coins in June.
Bitcoin
Michael Saylor Issues Statement on Bitcoin Amid Crypto Market Sell-Off by U.Today
U.Today – Amid an ongoing sell-off in the cryptocurrency market, Michael Saylor, a prominent advocate and president of MicroStrategy, made a statement on X (Twitter) that reverberated across the crypto space: “Just Bitcoin.”
This two-word tweet comes as the cryptocurrency market faces significant sell-offs as the price of Bitcoin plummets.
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market value, began its decline in Tuesday’s trading session, hitting $63,223 at one point before falling further.
Losses deepened on Wednesday as investors considered remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with Bitcoin hitting intraday lows of $59,509. At the time of writing, BTC is down 2.85% over the past 24 hours to $60,274.
According to data from CoinGlass, the sell-off has resulted in a significant amount of cryptocurrencies being liquidated in the past 24 hours, totaling over $166 million. However, this has not deterred Saylor’s confidence in Bitcoin, as he reiterates his longing for the crypto asset in his tweet.
Cryptocurrency market crashes
Cryptocurrencies fell on Tuesday after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank needs to see more progress on inflation before cutting interest rates, which are now at 5.25%-5.50%. Powell revealed at a monetary symposium in Sintra, Portugal, that the United States is moving closer to a disinflationary path.
“We want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably downward toward 2% before we begin the process of tapering or easing policy,” Powell said.
Market losses deepened after Wednesday’s economic releases that indicated the labor market is cooling. Recent data showed weaker-than-expected private payroll growth in June, but weekly jobless claims were higher than economists had forecast. The latest figures come ahead of the highly anticipated June nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.
As the cryptocurrency market goes through a period of uncertainty, the coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the direction of BTC’s price.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin and Ethereum in GTA 6? Still rumors — for now
Rumors that the long-awaited Grand Theft Auto 6 will use cryptocurrency that has been circulating for more than a year now—and they’re spinning again.
On Wednesday, a pseudonymous Crypto Twitter influencer named Gordon — apparently named after Gordon Gekko from the iconic 1987 film “Wall Street” —shared to his nearly 500,000 followers that “GTA 6 will allow cryptocurrency payments” and that “so far only Bitcoin, EthereumIt is USDT [are] confirmed.”
But in reality, no cryptocurrency has been confirmed for Grand Theft Auto 6, despite ongoing chatter about the rumors. Rockstar Games and parent company Take-Two have made no such announcements this week on the subject, nor have they made any prior announcements, and official trailers and announcements have made no mention of cryptocurrency being included.
However, the tweet — which also included a fake trailer for the game — quickly went viral, with over 500,000 views as of this writing in a matter of hours. When Twitter users asked Gordon for his sources, he would jokingly respond that his “uncle works there” or say that previous reports on the matter were “old” at this point.
But really, nothing has changed since then. DecipherGG’s reported in previous rumors in May 2023, not even since the first official trailer — which initially leaked with “BUY BTC” stamped on itApparently by the leaker in question—premiered last December.
DecipherGG reached out to Rockstar Games for comment but did not receive an immediate response.
Could Grand Theft Auto 6 implement a crypto element when it releases in 2025? It’s certainly possible, and if so, it would be a transformative moment for cryptocurrency adoption by the traditional gaming industry.
Take-Two Interactive has explored the space before, acquiring casual gaming giant Zynga in early 2022, when Take-Two founder and CEO Strauss Zelnick suggested there were “Web3 opportunities” that they could explore better as a team. Zynga has launched its first blockchain game on Ethereum, called Sugartownbut Take-Two has yet to get involved with other brands.
Rockstar Games, on the other hand, prohibited the use of cryptocurrency or NFTs on player-run Grand Theft Auto 5 servers in late 2022, following a rise in the use of NFTs to represent unique player-owned assets on modded game servers.
And given Grand Theft Auto’s satirical tone, the game may be more likely to criticize cryptocurrency and poke fun at caricatures of crypto fans and NFTs, for example, rather than trying to launch its own on-chain currency. But that’s all speculation at this point, as there are relatively few official details about GTA 6.
For now, at least, don’t believe the hype. While Rockstar Games hasn’t officially closed the door on cryptocurrency usage in Grand Theft Auto 6, it hasn’t confirmed anything about it either. However, it’s sure to remain a hot topic in the long run leading up to release, which is currently scheduled for fall 2025.
Edited by Ryan Ozawa.
Bitcoin
Crypto President Trump’s ‘Lesser’ Regulation Will Bless Coinbase’s Bitcoin Leverage, Expert Says – Coinbase Glb (NASDAQ:COIN)
Chris SenyekChief Investment Strategist at Wolfe Researchrecently expressed his opinion on the potential impact of a Donald Trump win the 2024 elections in the cryptocurrency market.
What happened: Senyek suggested that a Trump presidency could ease cryptocurrency regulations, benefiting companies like Coinbase Global Inc. COIN due to its importance Bitcoin BTC/USD Leverage.
“Trump would be less harsh on crypto regulation, and Coinbase would be a big beneficiary of that given its influence on bitcoin,” Senyek said during CNBC’s “Last Call” on Tuesday.
See too: Enhance Your Retirement Portfolio: The Benefits of Adding Cryptocurrency
Why does this matter?:Senyek’s comments come in the context of the former president Donald Trump‘s reported plans to participate at the Bitcoin 2024 convention, which could reinforce his image as a “Crypto President”.
Trump’s potential participation in the Bitcoin 2024 convention, a major event on the cryptocurrency calendar, could have significant implications for the industry.
Pratik KalaHead of Research in DigitalX Limitedhe has predicted a Trump victory in the upcoming elections, but warns that immediate cryptocurrency-friendly regulations may not be a priority.
A recent report by 10x Search explore the recent rise in Bitcoin price and its potential connection to Trump’s strong position in the 2024 election race. The report, titled “Is the Bitcoin Trump Pump Sustainable?”, highlights a 4% spike in Bitcoin’s price following the news that the president Joe Biden will remain in the race despite a poor performance in the presidential debate.
Price Action: At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading 2.10% lower at $60,860.66, according to Benzinga Pro.
Read next:
Image created using photos from Shutterstock
This story was generated using Benzinga Neuro and edited by Pooja Rajkumari
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© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
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